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A PROCEDURE FOR ESTIMATION OF LATERAL SPREADING DISPLACEMENT USING RESULTS OF PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT
Session: Earthquakes and Geohazards II / Séismes et géoaléas II
Hamid Karimian, Ph.D., P.Eng. (Canada)
Roy Mayfield, Ph.D., P.E. (United States)
Pete Quinn, Ph.D., P.Eng., P.Geo. (Canada)
Empirical and semi-empirical regression models are widely used to estimate liquefaction-induced lateral spreading displacements. These models were developed from case histories with the seismic hazard defined in a deterministic fashion. A difficulty arises when using these models with results from a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) which are made up of contributions from a range of magnitude and distance combinations. There is little guidance on the selection of appropriate values of magnitude and distance from a PSHA for use in these models, and the commonly used mean or modal values may result in misrepresentation of lateral spreading displacements and do not provide information regarding the probability of exceedance of the estimated values. This paper introduces an approach to estimate the annual probability of exceedance of significant lateral spreading displacements (i.e. = 0.3 m) using conventional PSHA output. The ground displacement threshold of 0.3 m was selected based on the review of a published database and is considered as a potential threshold to separate inconsequential and consequential ground displacements to some important structures including buried steel pipes and highways. Suggestions are also provided for application of this approach for displacement values other than 0.3 m.
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