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UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENTS
Session: Uncertainty, Reliability, and Risk / Incertitude, fiabilité, et risque
Bruce Jamieson, University of Calgary (Canada)
Pascal Haegeli, Avisualanche Consulting (Canada)
Grant Statham, Alpine Specialists (Canada)
Snow avalanche risk assessments are applied in planning for residential areas, energy corridors, transportation corridors, industrial sites, ski area expansions, as well as for operational decisions for work sites, ski areas and commercial backcountry recreation. While many of these assessments are qualitative, some are quantitative. Increasingly, uncertainty has become an explicit part of snow avalanche risk assessments. Sources of uncertainty in snow avalanche risk assessments include weather, climate, snowpack, vegetation, terrain, as well as the exposure of people and things of value. We review strategies for reducing uncertainty in the assessment process including the use of independent predictive methods as well as reviews. To reduce the frequency of death and damage from snow avalanches, analytical methods such as non-exceedance probabilities can ensure that much of the uncertainty lies below the applicable threshold of acceptable risk. Finally, we summarize strategies for communicating uncertainty about avalanches to the risk owner.
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