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OBSERVED AND PREDICTED THERMAL REGIME UNDER AN EXISTING HIGHWAY EMBANKMENT ON DEGRADING PERMAFROST
Session: Infrastructure Performance in Cold Regions / Performance des infrastructures en régions nordiques
David Flynn, KGS Group (Canada)
Marolo Alfaro, University of Manitoba (Canada)
Jim Graham, University of Manitoba (Canada)
David Kurz, Golder Associates Ltd. (Canada)
Lukas Arenson, BGC Engineering Inc. (Canada)
Temperature changes of ground thermal regimes in permafrost regions can initiate thawing and degradation of permafrost and potentially damage existing infrastructure. Subsequent settlements and lateral spreading can lead to hazardous driving conditions on highways. Future changes in climate will exacerbate thermal degradation and negatively impact the long-term performance of linear infrastructure like highways, runways, rail lines, and pipelines. The paper discusses numerical thermal modeling of an instrumented highway embankment on degrading permafrost, both for simulating current conditions and projecting future behaviour. The embankment is located 18 km north of Thompson, Manitoba on Provincial Road (PR) 391. Thermistors were installed beneath the toe, mid-slope, shoulder and centerline of the embankment. Five years of data have been collected. Earlier papers by the authors outlined the instrumentation and development of a first generation of numerical thermal models for the site. This new contribution describes how projected trends in climate change have been used to assess future behaviour.
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